The 2023 PIAA Team Dual State Championships kick off Thursday in Hershey. Here are my dual-by-dual predictions for the AAA tournament.

I reviewed every matchup and jotted down projected lineups for each team. Then I scored each matchup that I came up with. I want everyone to understand that I did not account for forfeits or possible injuries. If I knew that a wrestler would not be in the lineup, I took them out, but scores reflect every match being wrestled without forfeits. I will end these predictions with an explanation of each matchup, but first, let me run through my initial thoughts.

Well, District 11 will run this bracket. It still amazes me that the district only gets two qualifiers, but regardless, Nazareth and Bethlehem Catholic seem to be on another collision course to the finals. Bethlehem Catholic has the easiest road to the finals of the two teams, with only Waynesburg being the only real threat. If Bethlehem Catholic can get past Waynesburg, they should make it to the finals. Nazareth has a more challenging path, with Central Dauphin and Canon-McMillan potential Quarterfinal and Semi-Final matchups. They should be able to get past both teams to square off against Bethlehem Catholic in the finals. Since we just saw that dual last week, I do not see any real change in results, so Bethlehem Catholic should take home the title.

Central Dauphin and Waynesburg have similar paths to the 3rd Place match. Both will lose to the District 11 teams and drop to the consolations. Central Dauphin will have an easier way than Waynesburg will in the consolations. I do not see Central Dauphin stumbling much in the consolations, so that is why I have them wrestling for third. Waynesburg will have two “easy” duals before they get another re-match with Canon-McMillan. Both duals were close this year, with Canon-McMillan able to flip results from the first dual to win the District 7 title last Saturday. This time around, I have Waynesburg winning a razor-sharp dual to advance to the consolation finals. There will be another tight dual, but Waynesburg is just put together better at the heavier weights, pushing them to a victory.

Round of 16

Hempfield Area defeats Pennridge 32-23

Hempfield Area wins 8/13 matches with 4 wins including bonus points. Pennridge wins 5 matches with 3 wins by bonus points.

Cumberland Valley defeats Central Mountain 27-22

Cumberland Valley wins 7/13 matches with 3 wins collecting bonus points. Central Mountain wins 6 matches with and 2 win including bonus points.

Waynesburg defeats Shikellamy 30-22

Waynesburg wins 7/13 matches with 3 wins including bonus points. Shikellamy wins 6 matches with and 2 win including bonus points.

Bethlehem Catholic defeats Council Rock South 38-6

Bethlehem Catholic wins 11/13 matches with 3 wins including bonus points. Council Rock South wins 2 matches all by regular decision.

Central Dauphin defeats LaSalle 36-12

Central Dauphin wins 10/13 matches with 4 wins with bonus points. LaSalle wins 3 matches with 1 match ending with bonus points.

Nazareth defeats Delaware Valley 39-12

Nazareth wins 10/13 matches with 5 wins including bonus points. Delaware Valley wins 3 matches with 1 match ending with bonus points.

Cathedral Prep defeats Spring-Ford 25-19

Cathedral Prep wins 8/13 matches with only 1 win including bonus points. Spring-Ford wins 5 matches with 3 wins including bonus points.

Canon-McMillan defeats Chambersburg 28-19

Canon-McMillan wins 8/13 matches with 2 wins being bonus points. Chambersburg wins 5 matches with 2 bonus point wins.

Consolation Round 1

Pennridge defeats Central Mountain 31-27

Pennridge wins 7/13 matches with 5 wins including bonus points. Central Mountain wins 6 matches with 5 bonus point wins.

Council Rock South defeats Shikellamy 29-24

Council Rock South wins 8/13 matches with 3 bonus point wins. Shikellamy wins 5 matches with 3 wins including bonus points.

Delaware Valley defeats LaSalle 32-28

Delaware Valley wins 7/13 matches with 5 wins including bonus points. LaSalle wins 6 matches with5 bonus point wins.

Spring-Ford defeats Chambersburg 30-22

Spring-Ford wins 8/13 matches with 2 bonus point wins. Chambersburg wins 5 matches with 3 wins including bonus points.

Quarterfinals

Cumberland Valley defeats Hempfield Area 32-27

Cumberland Valley wins 7/13 matches including 5 bonus point wins. Hempfield Area wins 6 matches also with 5 bonus point wins. This will be one of the tighter Quarterfinal matches with both teams matching up very well. Although I believe that they will have equal bonus point wins, Cumberland Valley will have 3 pins to Hempfield Area’s 2. The extra match win will help push Cumberland Valley to a win.

Bethlehem Catholic defeats Waynesburg 36-24

Bethlehem Catholic wins 8/13 matches with 7 bonus point wins. Waynesburg wins 5 matches with 4 bonus point wins. Bethlehem Catholic can pull away with key wins in the lightweights before they get to the heavier weights where Waynesburg is much better.

Nazareth defeats Central Dauphin 34-22

Nazareth wins 8/13 matches with 4 wins including bonus points. Central Dauphin wins 5 matches with 3 bonus point wins. Nazareth will pick up wins in bunches with a solid middle-weight and upper-weight combo. Central Dauphin will need to win some key matches early on to keep up with Nazareth.

Canon-McMillan defeats Cathedral Prep 40-21

Canon-McMillan wins 9/13 matches with 5 bonus point wins. Cathedral Prep wins 4 matches with 3 bonus point wins. Canon-McMillan will take advantage of a weaker lineup in Cathedral Prep to get a big win. Canon-McMillan has great lower-weight and upper-weight wrestlers that they should get some big wins from. That will help them push past Cathedral Prep.

Consolation Round 2

Pennridge defeats Cathedral Prep 33-29

Pennridge wins 7/13 matches and wins 6 matches including bonus points. Cathedral Prep wins 6 matches with 4 bonus point wins.

Central Dauphin defeats Council Rock South 37-19

Central Dauphin wins 8/13 matches with 5 bonus point wins. Council Rock South wins 5 matches with only 2 bonus point wins.

Waynesburg defeats Delaware Valley 40-23

Waynesburg wins 8/13 matches with 6 bonus point wins. Delaware Valley wins 5 matches with 2 bonus point wins.

Spring-Ford defeats Hempfield Area 31-29

Spring-Ford wins 7/13 matches with 4 bonus point wins. Hempfield Area wins 6 matches with 5 bonus point wins.

Semi-Finals

Bethlehem Catholic defeats Cumberland Valley 39-15

Bethlehem Catholic wins 9/13 matches with 6 bonus point wins. Cumberland Valley wins 4 matches with only 1 win including bonus points. Bethlehem Catholic has a deeper lineup than Cumberland Valley does and it will show here. Cumberland Valley might have the opportunity to win a weight or two more but it will not change the final result.

Nazareth defeats Canon-McMillan 35-16

Nazareth wins 8/13 matches with 5 wins including bonus points. Canon-McMillan wins 5 matches with only 1 bonus point win. Canon-McMillan will make it interesting early with the lighter-weights winning 3 out of 4 matches. Nazareth will take over winning 7 of the next 9 matchups to pull away from Canon-McMillan.

Consolation Round 3

Central Dauphin defeats Pennridge 38-21

Central Dauphin wins 8/13 matches with 6 bonus point wins. Pennridge wins 5 matches with only 2 bonus point wins.

Waynesburg defeats Spring-Ford 34-25

Waynesburg wins 7/13 matches with 5 bonus point wins. Spring-Ford wins 6 matches and wins 4 matches by bonus points.

Consolation Semi-Finals

Central Dauphin defeats Cumberland Valley 40-18

Central Dauphin wins 9/13 matches with 6 wins by bonus points. Cumberland Valley wins 4 matches with 2 bonus point wins. Central Dauphin has a way better lineup and it will show in this match.

Waynesburg defeats Canon-McMillan 28-27

Waynesburg wins 6/13 matches with 4 bonus point wins. Canon-McMillan wins 7 matches with 3 bonus point wins. The key victories will come with pins at 145, 160, and 285 that will ultimately determine this dual. We have seen this dual play out twice this year with a combined point differential of 4 points. This dual will be just as close as the previous matchups.

Third Place

Waynesburg defeats Central Dauphin 29-28

Waynesburg wins 6/13 matches with 5 bonus point wins. Canon-McMillan wins 7 matches with 4 bonus point wins. Waynesburg will need bonus point wins to take this dual because Central Dauphin’s lineup is pretty deep. 172-285 will be important weights for Waynesburg where I see them winning all those matchups with 3 pins and 1 major decision. Any fluctuation in those results can change the outcome.

Finals

Bethlehem Catholic defeats Nazareth 30-26

Bethlehem Catholic wins 7/13 matches with 5 bonus point wins. Nazareth wins 6 matches with 4 bonus point wins. This will be a closer dual than we saw last week but I do not see the winner changing hands. Bethlehem Catholic will ride key wins in their middle-weights to take the dual and the state title over Nazareth.